μ · measurement · July 23, 2026 · 8 min
Marriage Is Vanishing, Just Not for Everyone
Same-sex marriage keeps climbing while opposite-sex marriage keeps falling, which is a problem for the leading story about why Americans are pairing off less.
I take real papers and public data and test their claims, wages, marriage markets, sports analytics, ad measurement, and turn what I find into stories.
Same-sex marriage keeps climbing while opposite-sex marriage keeps falling, which is a problem for the leading story about why Americans are pairing off less.
Prediction-market theory says more bettors should make prices more accurate. Across 73 Polymarket World Cup matches, the highest-volume games were the worst calibrated, and trader count didn't matter at all.
A striker's hot scoring streak almost never predicts the next one. I tested it across 5,498 player-seasons in Europe's top leagues.
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